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20 September, 2021

External Trade and the Balance of Payments - the Overall Situation

 In the external sector, the Current Account Balance (CAB) continued to be in surplus reflecting the increasing inflows of remittances bolstered by continued export expansion and declining imports. Import growth was sluggish in FY13, partly reflecting the significant fall in food import demand, lower petroleum imports as well as slower demand for imports related to manufacturing output.

Remittances were buoyed by larger numbers of Bangladeshi workers moving abroad in FY12 as well as real wage growth in the Middle East following the 'Arab Spring' events. Remittance growth of 12.6 percent in FY13 is higher than the 10.2 percent growth in FY12, though this growth did slow to 4.2 percent during the second half of the year compared to the first half of FY13 when remittance growth was 22 percent. This slow-down is a function of a 34 percent drop in the number of migrant workers between July-April FY13 relative to the same period in FY12. The capital account shows that foreign direct investment is projected to have increased from USD 1.2 billion in FY12 to USD 1.3 billion in FY13. Medium and long term loan disbursements rose from USD 1.5 billion in FY12 to USD 1.7 billion in FY13 and net aid flows increased from USD 671 million to USD 841 million during the same period. Improved external balances are reflected in the accumulation of international reserves to over USD 15 billion at the end of FY13, sufficient to cover 5.5 months of projected imports. The overall balance of payments surplus in FY13 was USD 5128 million.

Exports

Total exports in FY13 had a strong growth over the same period of FY12. Aggregate exports increased by 11.2 percent in FY13 to USD 27027.4 million from USD 24301.9 million in FY12. Apparels (woven garments and knitwear products) continued to occupy an overwhelming (above three fourth) share of the export basket in FY13.

Readymade garments

(woven and knitwear): Woven and knitwear products, which fetch about 79.6 percent of total export earnings, registered a high increase in receipts, from USD 19089.7 million of FY12 to USD 21515.8 million in FY13. Woven and Knitwear products grew by 15.0 percent and 10.4 percent respectively in FY13.

Frozen food

The frozen foods sector, comprising mainly of shrimps, registered marked decrease in earnings during FY13. Receipts from export of shrimp and fish decreased by 11.5 percent from USD 579.8 million of FY12 to USD 512.9 million in FY13.

Raw jute

In FY13, raw jute valued at USD 229.9 million was exported compared with USD 266.3 million in FY12, i.e. a 13.7 percent fall in exports during the year.

Jute goods (excluding carpets)

Jute products valued at USD 800.7 million was exported compared with USD 701.1 million in FY12 showing an increase of 14.2 percent in FY13.

Leather

Export earnings from leather and leather products increased by 21.0 percent to USD 399.7 million in FY13 from

USD 330.2 million in FY12.

Home Textile

Export earnings from home textile declined by 12.6 percent to USD 791.5 million in FY13 from USD 906.1 million in FY12.

Engineering products

These exports fell marginally from USD 375.5 million in FY12 to USD 367.5 million in FY13.

Chemical Products:

Export earnings from Chemical Products decreased by 9.7 percent to USD 93.0 million in FY13 against

USD 103.0 million in FY12.

Imports

Import payments (fob) in FY13 were USD 33576.0 million registering a positive growth of 0.8 percent compared to USD 33309.0 million in FY12. Table 10.2 shows the composition of imports; the major items are petroleum related products, wheat, textiles, raw cotton, edible oil, sugar, capital machinery, plastics, rubber and fertiliser. Food grains import decreased substantially by 19.4 percent to USD 726.0 million in FY13 (rice 89.6 percent) from USD 901.0 million in FY12 mainly due to adequate domestic supply of rice during the period. On the other hand wheat import increased by 13.5 percent to USD 696.0 million in FY13. Pulses, oil seeds, wheat, crude petroleum, chemicals, textile & articles thereof etc. recorded increases of imports during FY13. Imports of other food items recorded significant negative growth of 13.1 percent to 3128.0 million in FY 13 from USD 3600.0 million in FY12 (sugar 37.9 percent, edible oil 14.7 percent, spices 14.5 percent and milk & cream 3.2 percent). However, pulses recorded positive import growth of 73.7 percent during the year. Consumer and intermediate goods import 91recorded negative growth which decreased by 0.5 percent to USD 16694.0 million in FY13 from USD 16783.0 million in FY12 (fertiliser 14.0 percent, POL 7.1 percent, raw cotton 3.8 percent, clinker 3.4 percent, yarn 2.0 percent). Except iron, steel & other base metal, capital machinery and others under the category of capital goods and others showed negative import growth. Therefore, imports of capital goods and others decreased by 9.0 percent to USD 11031.0 million in FY13 from USD 12118.0 million in FY12 (others 13.0 percent and capital machinery 8.5 percent). However, imports by EPZ increased by 18.5 percent to USD 2505.0 million in FY13 compared to USD 2114.0 million in FY12. Workers' Remittances10.22 Despite continued global economic slowdown, the flow of inward remittances from Bangladeshi nationals working abroad remained strong in FY13 and continued to play an important role in strengthening the current account balance. Remittance inflow increased by 12.6 percent to USD 14338 million in FY13 from USD 12734 million in FY12. (Appendix-3, Table-XVI) However, as discussed above the rate of remittance growth sharply slowed down in the second half of FY13 compared with the first half.

Foreign Aid

Total official foreign aid disbursement increased by 31.0 percent to USD 2786 million in FY13 from USD 2126 million received in FY12 (Table 10.4). This was despite a decline in food aid which amounted to USD 20 million in FY13 against USD 69 million in FY12. The disbursement of project assistance stood at USD 2766 million in FY13, compared with USD 2057 million in FY12. Total outstanding official external debt as of 30 June 2013 was USD 23319 million (18.0 percent of GDP in FY13) against USD 22095 million as of 30 June 2012 (19.0 percent of GDP in FY12). Repayment of fficial external debt amounted to USD 1102 million (excluding repurchases from the IMF) in FY13. Out of the total repayments, principal payments amounted to USD 906 million while interest payments stood at USD 196 million in FY13, against USD 789 million and USD 200 million respectively during FY12. The debt-service ratio as percentage of exports was 4.1 percent in FY13.