GDP is the final value of the final goods and services produced within the geographic boundaries of a country during a specified period of time, normally a year.
It counts the goods and services produced within the country and hence does not consider the products that the country imports from another country.
GDP Growth Rate
·
GDP
growth rate is an important indicator of the economic performance of a country.
It is the percentage increase in GDP from year to year.
·
It
tells us exactly whether the economy is growing quicker or slower than the preceding year. Most countries use real GDP to remove the effect of inflation.
·
If
the economy produces less than the preceding year, it contracts and the growth
rate is negative. This signals a recession. If it stays negative long enough,
the recession turns into a depression.
Significance of GDP
·
GDP
is a broad measure of a country’s economic activity, used to estimate the size
of an economy and growth rate. Because GDP provides a direct indication of the
health and growth of the economy, businesses can use GDP as a guide to their
business strategy. Investors also watch GDP since it provides a framework for
investment decision-making.
·
The
“corporate profits” and “inventory” data in the GDP report are a great resource
for equity investors, as both categories show total growth during the period.
Corporate profits data also displays pre-tax profits, operating cash flows and
breakdowns for all major sectors of the economy.
Methods of Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) Calculation
Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) can be measured by 3 methods:
1. Income Approach:
- The income approach starts with the
income earned from the production of goods and services. Under income
approach we calculate the income earned by all the factors of production
in an economy.
- Factors of production are the
inputs which goes into producing final product or service. Thus, the
factors of production for a business are – Land, Labor, Capital and
Management within the domestic boundaries of a country.
- In this approach, we calculate
income from each of these Factor of production which includes the wages
got by labor, the rent earned by land, the return on capital in the form
of interest, as well as business profits earned by management. Sum of All
these incomes constitutes national income and is a way to calculate GDP.
- Formula : Net National Income =
Wages + Rent + Interest + Profits
2. Expenditure Approach
:
- Second approach is converse of
Income approach as rather than Income, it begins with money spent on goods
& services. This measures the total expenditure incurred by all
entities on goods and services within the domestic boundaries of a
country.
- Mathematically, GDP (as per
expenditure method) = C + I + G + (EX-IM)
Where,
- C: Consumption Expenditure,
i.e. when consumers spend money to buy various goods and services. For
example – food, gas bill, car etc.
- I: Investment Expenditure, i.e.
When businesses spend money as they invest in their business activities.
For example, buying land, machinery etc.
- G: Government Expenditure, i.e.
when government spends money on various development activities and
- (EX-IM): Exports minus Imports,
that is, Net Exports. I.e. we include the exports to
other countries in calculation of GDP and subtract the imports from other
countries to our country.
- The calculation of GDP from the
above methods gives us the nominal GDP of the country. We will consider
the difference between the Nominal and Real GDP in the coming article.
- Mostly GDP is calculated with both
approaches and calculations are done in such a way that the values from
both approaches should come almost equivalent.
3. Output (Production) Approach:
- This measures the monetary or
market value of all the goods and services produced within the borders of
the country.
- In order to avoid a distorted
measure of GDP due to price level changes, GDP at constant prices or Real
GDP is computed.
- GDP (as per output method) = Real
GDP (GDP at constant prices) – Taxes + Subsidies.
- To make it gross, we need to do two
adjustments – Add depreciation of capital & Add Net Foreign Factor
Income. NFFI is (income earned by the rest of the world in the country –
income earned by the country from the rest of the world)
- GDP (Factor Cost) = Wages + Rent +
Interest + Profits+ Depreciation + Net Foreign Factor Income
- This basically is the sum of final
income of all factors of production contributing to a business in a
country before tax.
- Now if we add taxes and deduct
subsidies, then it become GDP at Market cost.
- GDP (Market Cost) = GDP (Factor
Cost)+ (Indirect Taxes – Subsidies)
Is higher per capita income the only
measure of economic development?
Generally, economic
development is a process of change over a long period of time.
Though there are
several criteria or principles to measure the economic development, yet none
provides a satisfactory and universally acceptable index of economic
development.
Hence, it is a complex
problem to answer about the measuring of economic development.
R.G. Lipsey maintains
that there are many possible measures of a country’s degree of development,
income per head, the percentage of resources unexploited, capital per head,
saving per head and amount of social capital. But more commonly used criteria
of economic development are increase in national income, per capita real
income, comparative concept, standard of living and economic welfare of the
community etc.
1.
National Income as an Index of Development:
There is a group of
certain economists which maintains the growth of national income should be
considered most suitable index of economic development. They are Simon Kuznets,
Meier and Baldwin, Hicks D. Samuelson, Pigon and Kuznets who favored this
method as a basis for measuring economic development. For this purpose, net
national product (NNP) is preferred to gross national product (GNP) as it gives
a better idea about the progress of a nation.
According to Prof.
Meier and Baldwin, “If an increase in per capita income is taken as the measure
of economic development, we would be in the awkward position of having to say
that a country had not developed if its real national income, had risen but
population had also risen at the same rate.”
Similarly, Prof. Me de
maintains that, “Total income is a more appropriate concept to measure welfare
than income per capita.” Therefore, in measurable economic development, the
most appropriate measure will be to include final goods and services produced
but we must allow for the wastage of machinery and other capital goods during
the process of production.
Arguments
in Favor of National Income:
There are certain
arguments for stressing real national income as a measurement of economic
development.
They are:
(i) A larger real
national income is normally a pre-requisite for an increase in real per capita
income and hence, a rising national income can be taken as a token of economic
development.
(ii) If per capita
income is used for measuring economic development, the population problem may
be concealed, since population has already been divided out. In this context,
Prof. Simon Kuznets writes, “The choice of per capita, per unit or any similar
measure to gauge the rate of economic growth carried with it danger of
neglecting the denominator of the ratio.”
(iii) If an increase in
per capita income is taken as the measure of economic development, we are
likely to be put in an awkward situation of saying that a country has not developed
if its real national income has increased but its population has also increased
at the same rate.
Arguments against
National Income:
Despite the favourable
arguments, national income as a measure of economic development suffers from
certain shortcomings:
(i) It cannot
definitely be said that economic welfare has increased if the national and even
the per capita income may be rising unless the distribution of income is
equitable.
(ii) Expansion of
national and per capita income cannot be identified with enrichment because the
composition of the total output is also important. For example, an expansion of
total output could be accompanied by a depletion of natural resources or it
could compose of only armaments or could consist of merely a greater output of
capital goods.
(iii) It must not only
consider what is produced but also how it is produced. It is possible that when
real national output grows, the real costs i.e., ‘pain and sacrifice’ of the
society may also grow.
(iv) It is difficult to
determine proper deflators to eliminate the effects of price changes in an
underdeveloped countries.
(v) It is also
complicated when average income is rising but unemployment exists due to the
rapid growth of population, thus, such a situation is not consistent with the
development.
2.
Per Capita Real Income:
Some economists believe
that economic growth is meaningless if it does not improve the standard of
living of the common masses. Thus, they say that the meaning of economic development
is to increase aggregate output. Such a view holds that economic development be
defined as a process by which the real per capita income increases over a long
period time. Harvey Leibenstein, Rostow, Baran, Buchanan and many others favor
the use of per capita output as an index of economic development.
The UNO experts in
their report on ‘Measures of Economic Development of Under-developed Countries’
have also accepted this measurement of development. Charles P. Kindleberger
also suggested the same method with proper precautions in computing the
national income data.
Arguments in favor of
per Capita Real Income:
The aim of economic
development is to raise the living standard of the people and through this to
raise consumption level. This can be, estimated through per capita income
rather than national income. If national income of a country goes up but the
per capita income is not increasing, that will not raise the living standard of
the people. That way, per capita income is a better measure of economic
development than the national income.
Increase in per capita
income can be better index of an increase in the welfare of the people. In
advanced countries, national income has increased much faster than the growth
rate of population. It means the per capita real income has been constantly increasing
and this has led to the increase in welfare of the people. That way, per capita
income can be considered a better index of the welfare of the people.
Arguments
against Per Capita Real Income:
The real per capita
income, a measure of economic development has been severely criticized by Jacob
Viner, Kuznet etc.
(a) According to Meier
and Baldwin, “If an increase in per capita income were taken as the measure of
development, we would be in the awkward position of having to say that a
country had not developed if its real national income had risen, but population
has also risen at the same time.”
If in a country an
increase in national income is offset by the increase in population, then we
would be bound to say that no economic development has taken place. Similarly,
if national income in a country has not gone up but population has reduced due
to epidemic or war, in that case we would be bound to conclude that economic
development is taking place.
(b) When we divide
national income by population, the problem of population in that case is
ignored. It confines the scope of the study.
The increase in per
capita income is a good measure of economic development. In the advanced
countries, per capita income has been on continuous increases because the
growth rate of national income is greater than the growth rate of population.
This has raised the economic lot of the people. In underdeveloped countries,
there is very less capacity to produce per head. So, as the capacity to produce
goes up these economies proceed towards economic development.
c) In this measure,
distributive aspect has been ignored. If national income goes up but there is
unequal distribution of income among different sections of the society, in that
case rise in national income will be meaningless.
(d) In the
underdeveloped countries where per capita income is regarded as a measure of
economic development, with the increase in per capita income of these
countries, there is also increase in unemployment, poverty and income
inequalities. This cannot be regarded as development.
(e) Economic growth is
multi-dimensional concept which involves not only increase in money income but
also improvement in social activities like education, public health, greater
leisure etc. Such improvements cannot be measured by changes in per capita real
income.
(f) The data of per
capita national income are often inaccurate misleading and unreliable because
of imperfections in national income data, and its computation. That way, per
capita real income cannot be free from weaknesses. Despite these drawbacks in
the measure of real per capita income, many countries have adopted this measure
as an indicator of economic development.
3. Economic Welfare as an Index of Economic Development:
Keeping in view the
drawbacks of real national income and real per capita measures of economic
development, some economists like Coline Clark, Kindleberger, D. Bright Singh,
Hersick etc. suggested economic welfare as the measure of economic development.
The
term economic welfare can be understood in two ways:
(a) When there is equal
distribution of national income among all the sections of the society. It
raises economic welfare.
(b) When the purchasing
power of money goes up, even then there is an increase in the level of economic
welfare. The purchasing power of money can go up when with the increase in
national income there is also increase in the prices of goods. That means
economic welfare can increase if price stability is ensured.
Thus economic welfare
can boost with equal distribution of income and price stability. Higher the
level of economic welfare, higher will be extent of economic development and
vice-versa.
Arguments
against Welfare Index:
In order to assess
economic welfare, it is essential to know the nature of national income and the
social cost of production. We face lot a practical difficulties while
estimating these economic factors. It is on account of this reason that many
economists do not consider economic welfare as a good measure of economic
development. Also the concept of welfare is subjective in nature which cannot
be measured. Also welfare is a relative term which differs from person to
person.
4.
Comparative Concept:
Economic development is
a comparative concept and it can easily be understood and measured. In a simple
way, from comparative concept, we can ascertain how much the economic
development has been attained in a country.
The
comparison can be made by two methods over time period:
(а) Comparison within
the country.
(b) Comparison with
other countries.
(a) Comparison within
the Country:
5.
Measurement through Occupational Pattern:
The distribution of
working population in different occupations is also regarded as a criteria for
the measurement of economic development. Some economists regard the changes in
the occupational structure as a source for measuring the nature of economic
development. According to Colin Clark there is deep relation between the
occupational structure and economic development. He has divided the occupational
structure in three sectors.
(1) Primary Sector:
It includes
agriculture, fisheries, forestry, mining etc.
(2) Secondary Sector:
It consists of manufacturing,
trade, construction etc.
(3) Tertiary Sector:
Here we should note
that the measurement of economic development through occupational patterns is
not considered as satisfactory on following grounds:
(i) It is not possible
to clearly classify the occupations in an underdeveloped economy in three
distinct categories
(ii) Secondly, in the
early stages of development, the activities of tertiary sector like transport,
communications, trade etc. are inadequate and insufficient. Consequently the
chances of employment in these activities are very restricted.
6.
Standard of Living Criterion:
Another method to
measure economic development is the standard of living. According to this view,
standard of living and not rise in per capita income or national income should
be considered an indicator of economic development. The very objective of
development is to provide better life to its people through improvement or
upliftment of the standard of living. In other words, it refers to increase in
average consumption level of the individual. But, this criteria is not
practicably true.
Let us suppose,
national income and per capita both increase but the government mops up this
income with the way of heavy dose of taxation or compulsory deposit scheme or
any other method, in such a situation, there is no possibility to raise to
average consumption level i.e., standard of living.
Moreover, in poor
countries, propensity to consume is already high and stern efforts are made to
reduce superfluous consumption in order to encourage savings and capital
formation. Again ‘standard of living’ is also subjective which cannot be
determined with objective criterion.
Which
is the Best Measure of Economic Development?
After studying all the
above methods of measurement of economic development we are likely to be
confused and the question might arise as to which of the above measures of
economic development is the best. Answer depends on the objective of measuring
economic development. However, after considering form different point of view
it may be concluded that GNP or per capita is the best method of measuring
economic development.
In the words of Prof.
R.G. Lipsey, “Whatsoever changes there may be in future in the measurement of
economic development they cannot fully replace gross national product (GNP).”
Economists and U.N. Organisations use GNP per capita as the measurement of
economic development.